TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks voter participation in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, focusing specifically on the total number of votes cast including valid, blank, and null ballots. The outcome depends on whether turnout reaches certain thresholds, reflecting public engagement in the democratic process.
Kalshi
The event determines whether the total number of valid, blank, and null votes cast in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election meets or exceeds specified thresholds. The vote count includes all participants in the presidential contest as officially reported by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), encompassing blank and null votes but excluding registered voters who abstained, had justified absences, or voted in other contests. Only officially certified results from the relevant election authority are considered valid for resolution, meaning provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are counted solely if included in the certification. The contract further stipulates that resolution is based on certified results regardless of any ongoing appeals, and preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified data are explicitly excluded from determining the outcome. Additionally, the event is subject to provisions regarding fully-conducted elections and accelerated resolution upon declarations by designated media sources, ensuring that the reported figures align with authoritative, final tallies.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective when compared to traditional polling averages for the Brazil presidential election. While polls attempt to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *wager* on, potentially revealing more about perceived likelihoods. Discrepancies can arise from factors like poll methodology, social desirability bias, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It's important to consider both sources when forming an overall assessment of the election's potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official voter turnout percentage for the first round of the Brazil presidential election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official figures released by the relevant electoral authorities. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the final, verified turnout percentage. It’s important to monitor news sources as the election approaches for updates on the official results and potential resolution timelines.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, significant shifts in economic conditions, or unexpected political endorsements could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, will likely cause price fluctuations. Additionally, any news related to potential challenges to the electoral process or concerns about election integrity could also move this market. Monitoring these factors closely will be key to understanding potential shifts in the implied probabilities.
