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Polymarket:

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62%

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
polymarket
kalshi
limitless

What will the margin of victory be?

Total volume:
$1,745,386
Volume 24h:
$433,846
15%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$117,063
8%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 5, 4:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$229,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40,428
N/A
N/A
$18,791
11mo 2w 2d
Yes
limitless

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lula da Silva 5-10%

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$287,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lula da Silva, 5-10%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,778
N/A
N/A
$9,349
11mo 2w 2d
No
limitless

Lula da Silva 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lula da Silva <5%

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$277,927
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lula da Silva, 0-5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51,416
N/A
N/A
$25,906
11mo 2w 2d
No
limitless

Lula da Silva <5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Renan Santos Victory

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223,171
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Renan Santos Victory

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renan Santos wins

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11mo 2w 2d
No
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$217,577
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,927
N/A
N/A
$40,536
11mo 2w 2d
No
limitless

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lula da Silva 10-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$109,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lula da Silva, 10-15%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,873
N/A
N/A
$4,578
11mo 2w 2d
No
limitless

Lula da Silva 10-15%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$109,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lula da Silva 15%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lula da Silva, ≥15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,689
N/A
N/A
$1,483
11mo 2w 2d
No
limitless

Lula da Silva 15%+

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks the expected margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, specifically whether it will fall between 0% and 5%. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless indicates a 99.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be determined based on the official results reported following the election, with the market resolving to Yes if the margin of victory for Lula da Silva falls within 5% to 10%. Keep an eye on the official announcement of election results on October 4, 2027, as this will finalize the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Significant discrepancies exist in how margin ranges are defined and resolved across platforms, specifically regarding inclusivity/exclusivity of boundaries.Hero tip: Pay close attention to whether a market resolves on a boundary value (e.g., exactly 5%). Polymarket will typically move to the next higher bracket, while Kalshi will not resolve 'Yes' for ranges exclusive of the upper bound.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on whether a candidate wins by *less than* a specified percentage, with a rule to resolve to the higher bracket if the result falls exactly on a boundary. For example, 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?'
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether a candidate's margin falls *within* a specified range (inclusive lower bound, exclusive upper bound). For example, 'If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kalshi

The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage received by the candidate minus the vote percentage of the candidate finishing immediately behind them if they win, or the leading candidate if they lose. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound; no rounding is applied. For example, a margin of 5.99999% falls within the 5-10% range, while exactly 6% falls within the 6-15% range. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. Winning candidates have positive margins, losing candidates have negative margins, and ties result in a 0% margin. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only option, the margin is 100 percentage points.

Limitless

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on an outcome. This can lead to divergences, particularly when considering potential biases in polling data or strategic misreporting by respondents. While polls provide a snapshot of current sentiment, the aggregated trading volume of $1,745,386 in this market suggests a more nuanced assessment of the likely result. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi often arise due to variations in trader demographics, market-making activity, and the specific incentives offered on each platform. For example, Polymarket might attract a different class of trader than Kalshi, leading to differing interpretations of the same information. Additionally, the 24-hour volume on each platform—currently $402,236—can influence price discovery. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies for this market, even though both platforms address the same question regarding the Brazil presidential election.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major policy announcements from leading candidates, shifts in economic conditions within Brazil, and unexpected endorsements could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases will also be closely watched, though as noted, markets don’t always track polls directly. Any significant developments related to the eligibility or campaign strategies of key contenders could lead to substantial price movements. With a volume of $1,745,386, this market is sensitive to new information and is likely to react quickly to relevant news.