TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.8b

24H VOL:

$154,135,511

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,746,362,264

503,014

Markets across

37,427

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,897

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
polymarket
kalshi

Who will finish 3rd in the Brazil Presidential Election?

Volume:
$2,801,607

Person M

 - Polymarket

Person M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 3:31 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Person M

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$560,557
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Augusto Cury

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33,751
N/A
N/A
$10,294
2mo 1w 3d
Yes
polymarket

Renan Santos

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$991,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renan Santos

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$76,042
N/A
N/A
$35,101
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Ronaldo Caiado

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$381,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ronaldo Caiado

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$33,859
N/A
N/A
$19,986
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Flávio Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$156,916
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Flávio Bolsonaro

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,730
N/A
N/A
$6,105
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Romeu Zema

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$138,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Romeu Zema

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,741
N/A
N/A
$1,939
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Ratinho Júnior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104,208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ratinho Júnior

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$370
N/A
N/A
$368
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Person N

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Eduardo Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Eduardo Bolsonaro

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92
N/A
N/A
$92
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Fernando Haddad

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Fernando Haddad

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Tarcisio de Freitas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tarcísio de Freitas

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Jair Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,847
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jair Bolsonaro

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
No
Total markets: 25 of 46

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Augusto Cury finishing in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, the consensus probability—aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi—is 99.0% that he will. Resolution will be based on official vote counts published by the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). Keep an eye on the official election results as they become available, with resolution expected to occur if results are known by June 30, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets consistently resolve to the candidate receiving the third-most valid votes, with a tiebreaker of alphabetical order by last name.Primary resolution logic: Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
  • The candidate with the third-highest number of valid votes will determine the outcome.
  • In the event of a tie for third place, the candidate with the alphabetically earlier last name will be considered the winner.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Clear Third Place: If the election result isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Disputed Results: If there is ambiguity in the official results, the TSE's official count will be the final determinant.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon the official announcement of the first-round election results by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), or on June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if no official results are available by that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kalshi

Ranking is determined by vote count or percentage in plurality voting systems. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving third place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the expiration date, all markets resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to discrepancies, as market prices incorporate not only the probability of an event but also the perceived information advantage of informed traders. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming polls, particularly when accounting for uncertainty and late-breaking developments in the Brazilian presidential election.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in polling data, significant endorsements, or unexpected developments in the campaigns of key candidates could all cause price fluctuations. Any news regarding potential investigations or controversies involving the candidates would also likely move the market. Furthermore, economic announcements or geopolitical events impacting Brazil could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the odds on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market concerning the Brazilian presidential election.