TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:21 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of various candidates in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, focusing specifically on who might secure the fifth position. It reflects the competitive landscape of Brazilian politics, where numerous candidates vie for voter support in a highly fragmented electoral environment.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified results of the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. A market resolves to Yes only if the named candidate finishes in fifth place according to the official vote count or percentage. If multiple candidates tie for fifth place, the payout is divided proportionally among all tied markets, with each receiving $1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down. Any candidate not listed in the specific market who finishes fifth results in a No outcome for that market. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are still ranked based on the votes they receive. Should the election be cancelled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official election results released by Brazil’s electoral authority will determine the fifth-place finisher in the first round, and this market will close based on those verified results. No additional interpretation or judgment is needed — the market settles on the clear, publicly available data from the election night.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major candidate debates, economic announcements, or controversies that affect voter preferences. Polling updates closer to the election may also influence trader sentiment, especially if they show a surge or decline for any contender. Additionally, developments such as candidate endorsements, policy missteps, or media coverage highlighting fifth-place viability can cause rapid price changes, reflecting updated expectations for who will finish in that position.
