TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks who finishes in fourth place during the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Outcomes depend on official vote counts, with specific rules for handling ties, withdrawals, or election disruptions.
Kalshi
The event resolves positively for a market if the named candidate finishes in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, based on certified results. Rankings derive from official first-round vote counts or percentages. In cases of a tie for fourth place, payouts are divided proportionally among tied candidates; if an unlisted candidate finishes fourth, all listed markets resolve negatively. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked by the votes they receive. Should the election be canceled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets resolve negatively.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post bids and asks for each possible outcome. The displayed odds represent the current top trade prices, with volume of $66,260 indicating liquidity. Traders’ expectations, recent news, and shifts in campaign performance all feed into these prices, adjusting them dynamically as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official tally of votes will determine which candidate finishes fourth in the first round, and the market will close based on that verified ranking. No further interpretation is needed beyond the publicly announced results.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including debates, economic announcements, scandals, or major polling shifts. Media coverage of candidate performance, endorsements, or campaign missteps may also influence trader sentiment. As the election approaches, any event that changes perceptions of a candidate’s viability or electability is likely to impact pricing, especially if it alters the perceived chances of finishing fourth.
