TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which political party will win the most governorships across Brazil's 27 states and the Federal District in the 2026 elections. On Kalshi, PSD holds a 30.0% probability of winning the most seats, while PL stands at 26.0%. The market resolves according to official results from the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections scheduled for October 4, 2026. Watch the campaign momentum and coalition-building efforts leading up to election day, as party alliances and regional endorsements will be critical signals for determining which party secures the plurality of governorships.
Kalshi
A governorship is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the candidate has taken office as governor. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. The party winning the most governorships overall is the winner. In case of ties for the top rank, all tied parties resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (e.g., two parties tie for first, next is third), markets for the skipped rank resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Brazil governorship race. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the specified outcome occurs, and conversely, the amount a seller receives for offering that contract.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by Brazil’s electoral authorities, determining which party or coalition secures the most governorships in the 26 states and the Federal District. The final count of governorships won by each party will be used to determine the winning outcome in this market. It’s important to note that any recounts or legal challenges will be considered during the resolution process, ensuring an accurate and fair outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major political endorsements, shifts in public opinion revealed by updated polling data, and significant economic developments in Brazil could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected scandals involving candidates or parties, or changes in the political landscape due to unforeseen events, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, any announcements regarding campaign financing or electoral reforms could introduce volatility into this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the odds evolve leading up to Jan 1, 2027.
