TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
polymarket

Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

Volume:
$65,817

0.3%–0.5%

 - Polymarket

0.3%–0.5% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 10:02 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.3%–0.5%

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$31,149
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.6%–0.8%

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,894
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.9%–1.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.0%–0.2%

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.2%–1.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<0.0%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≥1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Brazil Q2 2026 GDP growth market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for quarter-over-quarter economic expansion in Brazil during the second quarter of 2026. The dashboard displays current market prices, historical price movements, and total trading volume of $65,817 across all related outcomes. Traders use this data to monitor consensus expectations about whether Brazil's economy will grow within specific percentage bands. The interface updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing participants to assess shifting sentiment about Brazil's near-term economic trajectory and adjust positions accordingly.

Prediction market odds in this market reflect real-time aggregation of trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst consensus. While economists and central banks publish quarterly GDP forecasts based on models and survey data, traders on prediction markets incorporate a broader set of signals—including recent economic data, policy announcements, and market sentiment. This market's odds can move faster than analyst revisions, particularly when new labor or inflation data emerges. Comparing the two reveals whether professional forecasters and decentralized traders align on Brazil's growth outlook, or whether market participants are pricing in risks that consensus estimates have not yet fully reflected.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, once Brazil's official Q2 2026 GDP growth figure becomes available and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the quarter-over-quarter growth rate released by Brazil's statistical agency, measured as a percentage. Traders who correctly predicted which outcome band the actual figure would fall into receive their winnings. Until the official data is published and confirmed, the market remains open and prices continue to fluctuate as new economic indicators and forecasts emerge. Resolution is final once the data is publicly verified.

Several catalysts could shift odds in this market before resolution. Monthly employment and inflation data from Brazil will influence expectations about growth momentum heading into Q2 2026. Central bank policy decisions and interest rate changes affect borrowing costs and consumer spending. Global economic conditions—including commodity prices, trade flows, and external demand—matter significantly for a commodity-dependent economy like Brazil. Political developments, fiscal policy announcements, and revisions to analyst forecasts will also drive trading activity. Additionally, preliminary economic indicators released closer to the quarter's end, such as purchasing manager indices and industrial production figures, typically trigger sharp repricing as traders refine their predictions based on real-time economic performance.