TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - March 30, 5PM ET
Volume:
$6,702
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down on March 30, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average at a specific threshold. The two platforms employ fundamentally different data sources, measurement windows, and resolution mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms use incompatible data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second rolling average), and different resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 31 tiered thresholds). Outcomes may diverge even if BNB price moves in the same direction.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket Up and Kalshi Yes are equivalent outcomes. Polymarket depends on Binance BNB/USDT candle mechanics; Kalshi depends on CF Benchmarks index calculation. Price action that satisfies one may not satisfy the other. Verify both data sources independently at 5 PM ET on March 30, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 30. Uses single exchange data point. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 31 separate Yes/No outcomes, each tied to a distinct price threshold ($509.99 to $704.99). Resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average BEFORE 5 PM EDT exceeds the threshold. Uses third-party index, not spot exchange. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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