TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET
Volume:
$10,068
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down on March 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average. The two platforms employ fundamentally different data sources, methodologies, and resolution criteria.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance BNB/USDT spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary directional vs. 40 discrete price bands). This creates potential for non-aligned outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on Binance candle open/close; Kalshi's outcome depends on which of 40 price bands CF Benchmarks' index falls into. If you are hedging across platforms, verify the data source and methodology match your risk exposure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution. Resolves Up if BNB/USDT close >= open for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 29, 2026. Data source: Binance BNB/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 discrete Yes/No outcomes based on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average price at 5 PM EDT. Covers price ranges from below $515 to above $704.99 in $5 increments. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [price range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.