TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - March 28, 5PM ET
Volume:
$899
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down at a specific moment (March 28, 5PM ET). Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index with multiple price thresholds. The two platforms measure different things: a directional candle outcome vs. absolute price levels.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket measures intra-candle direction (close vs open) using Binance spot BNB/USDT; Kalshi measures absolute price levels using CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index. Different data sources, different resolution logic, and different outcome spaces make these markets structurally incompatible.Hero Tip:
Polymarket resolves on a binary directional outcome; Kalshi resolves on 40 separate price-level conditions. A Polymarket Up resolution does not guarantee any specific Kalshi outcome, and vice versa. Treat as independent markets with different risk profiles.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution: Up if BNB/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open at 5PM ET on March 28, 2026. Source: Binance BNB/USDT spot pair. Key Quote: 'the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title'.
- Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No outcomes based on whether CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5PM EDT exceeds specific thresholds ($514.99 to $709.99). Source: CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index. Key Quote: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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