TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will BNB/USDT close up or flat on June 30, 5PM ET?

Volume:
$268

$545 to 549.99

 - Kalshi

$545 to 549.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$545 to 549.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
Yes
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 30, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 to 544.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

$454.99 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$455 to 459.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$460 to 464.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$465 to 469.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$470 to 474.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$475 to 479.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$480 to 484.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$485 to 489.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$490 to 494.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$495 to 499.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$500 to 504.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$505 to 509.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$510 to 514.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$515 to 519.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$520 to 524.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$525 to 529.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$530 to 534.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$535 to 539.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$550 to 554.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$555 to 559.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$560 to 564.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$565 to 569.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down at a specific moment (June 30, 5PM ET). Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses a 60-second CF Benchmarks average to resolve into specific price bands. The markets measure the same directional outcome but employ fundamentally different data sources, time windows, and resolution methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible resolution methodologies: Polymarket uses a binary directional comparison (1-hour candle close vs. open on Binance), while Kalshi uses discrete price-band outcomes (60-second CF Benchmarks average). The data sources, time windows, and outcome spaces are fundamentally misaligned.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are fungible. Polymarket is a pure directional bet (Up or Down). Kalshi is a price-level bet with 35 possible outcomes. A Polymarket Up outcome could correspond to multiple Kalshi outcomes depending on the final price level. Cross-platform arbitrage is not viable here. Confirm your platform choice based on whether you want directional exposure (Polymarket) or price-band exposure (Kalshi).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price; otherwise Down. Source: Binance official chart data. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 35 discrete Yes/No outcomes based on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average at exactly 5PM EDT. Each outcome covers a $5 price band (e.g., $515-519.99, $520-524.99, etc.), plus below $455 and above $644.99. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [X]-[Y]..., then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the average price falls. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than individual exchange prices.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill collective trader expectations into a single probability, often diverging from spot-price momentum or technical analysis alone. On this market, the odds reflect what informed traders believe will happen by the resolution date, not where BNB trades right now. Spot price can move sharply on news or volatility, but prediction odds adjust more gradually as new information accumulates. Many traders use this market as a contrarian signal: if odds and spot price are misaligned, it may indicate an opportunity or a warning that consensus is shifting.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market designs, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which naturally produces pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket uses an automated market maker, while Kalshi employs order-book mechanics; this structural difference means traders on each platform may weight the same information differently. Regulatory constraints, fee structures, and the timing of large orders can also widen or narrow the spread. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities or to validate which platform's odds align more closely with their own view.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting Binance or the broader crypto sector, Bitcoin or Ethereum price swings that drag altcoins along, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite. Platform updates, exchange listings, or significant partnerships tied to BNB's ecosystem can also shift trader sentiment sharply. Technical breakouts or breakdowns on the spot market often trigger repricing in prediction odds as traders reassess momentum. Monitoring on-chain metrics, funding rates, and social sentiment alongside traditional news flow helps traders anticipate moves before this market reprices.