TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will BNB/USDT close up or flat on June 29 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$703

BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$645 to 649.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
kalshi

$459.99 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$460 to 464.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$465 to 469.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$470 to 474.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$475 to 479.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$480 to 484.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$485 to 489.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$490 to 494.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$495 to 499.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$500 to 504.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$505 to 509.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$510 to 514.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$515 to 519.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$520 to 524.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$525 to 529.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$530 to 534.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$535 to 539.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$540 to 544.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$545 to 549.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$550 to 554.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$555 to 559.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 to 564.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$565 to 569.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks BNB/USDT price movement on June 29, 2026 at 5 PM ET across two distinct resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on whether the 1-hour candle close price is greater than or equal to the open price (Up/Down binary). Kalshi resolves to Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI falls within any of 40 predefined price bands, creating a fragmented outcome space.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create independent outcome spaces. Polymarket measures directional price movement (close vs. open on Binance 1H candle), while Kalshi measures absolute price level against 40 discrete CF Benchmarks bands. A single price outcome can resolve differently on each platform.Hero tip: These markets measure different things. Polymarket Up/Down is directional; Kalshi Yes/No is band-matching. The same BNB price at 5 PM ET could be Up on Polymarket but No on Kalshi (if it lands outside all 40 bands). Treat them as separate bets, not correlated positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional resolution: Up if BNB/USDT 1H candle close >= open on Binance; Down otherwise. Resolution source is Binance BNB/USDT pair, 1H candle finalized data. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Yes resolution if 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI falls within any of 40 predefined price bands ($460-$649.99 in $5 increments, plus <$460 and >$649.99). No resolution if average lands in any gap between bands. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [X-Y]... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is below $460 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $460-464.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $465-469.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $470-474.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $475-479.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $480-484.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $485-489.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $490-494.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $495-499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $500-504.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $505-509.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $510-514.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $515-519.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $520-524.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $525-529.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $530-534.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $535-539.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $540-544.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $545-549.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $550-554.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $555-559.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $560-564.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $565-569.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $570-574.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $575-579.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $580-584.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $585-589.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $590-594.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $595-599.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $600-604.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $605-609.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $610-614.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $615-619.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $620-624.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $625-629.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $630-634.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $635-639.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $640-644.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between $645-649.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $649.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price direction, which often diverges from current spot prices. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, prediction markets embed longer-term sentiment and catalysts into their pricing. A high probability for BNB to move up in this market suggests traders expect bullish momentum or positive news before settlement, even if spot price today appears neutral. Conversely, lower odds signal caution or expected headwinds. The gap between these two signals can highlight mispricing opportunities for traders who believe spot markets are underweighting upcoming events or fundamentals.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct user bases with different risk appetites and information sets, leading to natural arbitrage spreads. Polymarket's AMM-style pricing can create slippage at scale, while Kalshi's order-book model may reflect faster price discovery in thin liquidity. Geographic restrictions, platform-specific incentives, and settlement rule nuances also contribute. Savvy traders monitor both venues to exploit temporary mispricings before the spread narrows.

Major catalysts include BNB ecosystem announcements, Binance regulatory developments, and broader crypto market sentiment shifts. Macroeconomic data—interest rate decisions, inflation reports, or stock market volatility—often ripple through digital assets. Technical levels and on-chain metrics like exchange inflows or whale transactions can trigger sharp repricing. Competitor news affecting Ethereum or Solana may also sway BNB traders. Additionally, Bitcoin dominance swings and altseason narratives historically drive BNB volatility. Traders should monitor social sentiment, derivatives funding rates, and major exchange listings to anticipate moves before they're fully priced into this market.