TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

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$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will BNB price be up on June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$1,406

$645 or above

 - Kalshi

$645 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$645 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$956
N/A
N/A
$956
Settled
No
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$650 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

$560 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
kalshi

$640 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

$565 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
No
kalshi

$455 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$460 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$465 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$470 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$480 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USD price moves up or down during a 4-hour window on June 29, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Kalshi offers 40 granular price-level markets, each resolving Yes if a 60-second average at 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold. Polymarket offers a simpler binary: Up if end-of-range price >= start-of-range price, Down otherwise.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct measurement methodologies and data sources create settlement value mismatch. Kalshi resolves at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks; Polymarket resolves at 8 PM ET using Chainlink BNB/USD stream. Price movement between 5 PM and 8 PM could cause conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Kalshi's 40 price-level markets are granular but locked to a single 5 PM EDT snapshot. Polymarket's binary is simpler but spans the full 4-hour window. Arbitrage risk exists if BNB moves significantly between 5 PM and 8 PM ET.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 40 granular price-level markets. Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $454.99 to $649.99). All measurements occur at a fixed 5 PM EDT timestamp on June 29, 2026.
  • Polymarket: Single binary Up/Down market. Resolves Up if Chainlink BNB/USD price at 8 PM ET is greater than or equal to price at 4 PM ET. Spans the full 4-hour window and uses Chainlink data stream, not CF Benchmarks.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $454.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $459.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $464.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $469.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $474.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $479.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $484.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $489.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $494.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $499.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $504.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $509.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $514.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $519.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $524.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $529.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $534.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $539.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $544.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $549.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $554.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $559.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $564.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $569.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $574.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $579.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $584.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $589.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $594.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $599.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $604.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $609.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $614.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $619.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $624.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $629.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $634.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $639.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $644.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above $649.99 at 5 PM EDT on Jun 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively expect BNB's price action to be, independent of current spot levels. If this market is pricing one direction at significantly higher odds, it signals trader conviction that momentum or volatility will favor that outcome during the window. Spot price alone does not predict directional moves; prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment, technical setups, macro catalysts, and order-flow expectations. A wide gap between the two sides' odds suggests uncertainty or disagreement about near-term direction, while narrow odds indicate consensus. Comparing these odds to your own analysis helps identify potential mispricings.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct market-making rules, liquidity pools, and user bases, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may attract traders with different risk appetites, time horizons, or access to information, leading to divergent odds on the same outcome. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but friction costs, withdrawal delays, and platform-specific fees can prevent instant convergence. Additionally, each venue's order book depth and recent trade flow influence how new volume moves the odds, so a large bet on one platform may not immediately sync prices across both.

Major catalysts include BNB ecosystem announcements, Binance regulatory updates, broader crypto market momentum, and macroeconomic news affecting risk appetite. Technical levels, support and resistance zones, and options expiry dates can also trigger sharp moves. Unexpected exchange listings, token burns, or governance votes may shift trader positioning. Volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum often correlates with BNB price action, so monitoring those pairs is valuable. Real-time social sentiment, whale wallet activity, and derivative funding rates provide early signals of directional conviction. Traders should track these factors closely as the market window approaches to refine their edge.