TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 11:00 PM EST
Predict
This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle beginning June 27, 2024 at 10PM ET. Resolution is binary: 'Up' if close >= open, 'Down' otherwise, using Binance's official BNB/USDT pair data.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence how prices evolve. Polymarket's larger user base may react faster to breaking news, while Predict's smaller but focused community might price in longer-term fundamentals differently. Arbitrage opportunities between the two platforms create natural pressure to align prices, but friction—withdrawal delays, slippage, or platform-specific incentives—can sustain temporary gaps. Monitoring both venues reveals whether consensus is tightening or if material disagreement persists on the outcome.