TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will BNB/USDT close up or flat on June 26 at 5PM ET?

Volume:
$352

BNB Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 26, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$445 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$450 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$455 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$460 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$465 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$470 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$480 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$555 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on June 26, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance's official BNB/USDT pair (close vs. open comparison), while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index with 50 separate price thresholds, creating a fundamental mismatch in both data source and resolution methodology.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different data sources (Binance BNB/USDT spot vs. CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index) and incompatible resolution logic (binary candle comparison vs. 50 threshold-based markets). Settlement values will not align.Hero tip: These are separate, non-fungible markets. Polymarket resolves to a single Up or Down outcome; Kalshi resolves 50 independent Yes/No outcomes based on index thresholds. Do not assume price parity. Monitor both data sources independently and hedge accordingly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 26, 2026. Source: Binance official BNB/USDT pair. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 50 separate Yes/No markets, each triggered independently if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $444.99 to $689.99) at 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026. Source: CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI calculated immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 26, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price threshold, ranging from $445 to $690. A market resolves to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold specified for that market (e.g., a market for "$445 or above" resolves Yes if the average is above $444.99). The official price source is CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. At the resolution time, 60 individual RTI price points are collected over one minute, and their simple average determines the final outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds distill collective trader belief into a single probability, whereas spot prices reflect real-time supply and demand for the asset itself. On this market, the odds embedded in trader positions often diverge from what spot exchanges show, because prediction markets price a specific outcome at a defined moment, while spot prices fluctuate continuously. Traders use both signals: spot momentum can validate or challenge market sentiment, while prediction odds reveal whether the crowd expects that momentum to persist through resolution. Neither perfectly predicts the other, making both valuable for comprehensive market analysis.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rule sets, liquidity pools, and user demographics, all of which shape how traders price identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi may define settlement timing or data sources slightly differently, or one venue may attract more sophisticated traders while the other draws retail flow. Arbitrage opportunities often emerge when spreads widen, incentivizing traders to buy cheap on one platform and sell dear on the other. These price gaps typically narrow as traders exploit them, but temporary divergence is normal and reflects the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

Major catalysts include BNB ecosystem announcements, regulatory developments affecting Binance, broader crypto market sentiment shifts, and macroeconomic events that ripple through digital assets. Technical levels and on-chain activity metrics often trigger trader repositioning ahead of the close. Competing platforms' performance, token burns, or partnership news can also sway conviction. Traders monitor social sentiment, derivatives funding rates, and spot volume to gauge momentum. Any surprise in the crypto regulatory landscape or a sharp move in Bitcoin or Ethereum could cascade into this market, shifting odds rapidly as traders reassess their edge.