TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

Will BNB price be up on June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET?

Volume:
$3,876

BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$665 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,691
N/A
N/A
$2,691
Settled
No
kalshi

$670 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$748
N/A
N/A
$748
Settled
No
kalshi

$660 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
$298
Settled
No
kalshi

$475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$480 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$555 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$560 or above

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$565 or above

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$570 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$575 or above

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USD price moves up or down during a 4-hour window on June 25, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on price comparison at window boundaries using Chainlink data, while Kalshi uses 40 separate price-threshold conditions tied to a single 60-second average at 5 PM EDT.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure incompatible settlement values using different data sources, time windows, and resolution logic. Polymarket compares prices at window start and end; Kalshi triggers on 40 discrete price thresholds at a single moment (5 PM EDT). No unified resolution path exists.Hero tip: Do not cross-hedge between these platforms. Polymarket's directional outcome (Up/Down) is independent of Kalshi's threshold-based resolution. Kalshi's lack of an explicit "Down" condition and presence of 40 overlapping thresholds creates potential for ambiguous or contested settlement. Confirm the exact data source and timing with each platform before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional comparison: resolves to Up if BNB/USD price at 8:00 PM ET ≥ price at 4:00 PM ET, otherwise Down. Uses Chainlink BNB/USD data stream (https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd). Measurement spans the full 4-hour window.
  • Kalshi: 40 independent price-level conditions, all evaluated against a single 60-second average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI taken before 5 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. Each condition is: if average > [threshold], resolve Yes. No explicit No/Down condition provided. Thresholds range from $474.99 to $669.99.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; the market resolves Yes for the outcome matching the final averaged price. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, not general market data from other platforms. The official value is calculated by averaging exactly 60 RTI price points collected in the final minute before expiration.

Frequently asked questions

The BNB price movement market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether BNB will move up or down during a specific four-hour window on June 25, 2026. This market reflects collective sentiment from multiple prediction platforms, allowing you to compare how different communities price the same directional outcome. Cross-platform tracking reveals whether consensus is building around a particular direction or if divergence suggests uncertainty. The dashboard consolidates volume and odds data to show which outcome is favored and how conviction levels shift as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds function as a crowd-sourced probability estimate, distinct from spot price alone. While spot price reflects the current market-clearing rate, odds in this market encode trader expectations about directional movement over the next few hours. If odds heavily favor an up move, traders collectively believe upside is more likely than downside—yet spot price may remain stable if buy and sell pressure are balanced. The gap between implied probability and recent price action often signals where informed traders see opportunity. Monitoring this divergence helps identify whether the market is pricing in catalysts that spot data hasn't yet fully reflected.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market microstructures, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which naturally produces price variation on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, order-book depth, and trader demographics influence how quickly new information is priced in. A platform with lower liquidity may show wider bid-ask spreads, while one with higher volume can absorb large trades with less slippage. Additionally, settlement rules and dispute resolution processes may differ subtly, causing traders to assign slightly different probabilities to edge cases. Comparing both platforms reveals where consensus is strongest and where skepticism persists.

Macroeconomic announcements, regulatory news, and major exchange listings or delistings can shift BNB sentiment rapidly. Broader crypto market moves—particularly Bitcoin or Ethereum volatility—often drag altcoins in the same direction, so monitoring the largest assets is essential. Binance-specific developments, such as compliance updates or product launches, carry outsized weight for this asset. Technical levels and options expiry on adjacent dates may also influence intraday momentum. Social media sentiment and whale transaction activity visible on-chain can signal conviction shifts among large holders. Traders should track real-time news feeds and on-chain metrics throughout the four-hour window to stay ahead of price-moving events.