TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET

Volume:
$79

BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$514.99 or below

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$515 to 519.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$520 to 524.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$525 to 529.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$530 to 534.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$535 to 539.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$540 to 544.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$545 to 549.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$550 to 554.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$555 to 559.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$560 to 564.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$565 to 569.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$570 to 574.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$575 to 579.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$580 to 584.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$585 to 589.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$590 to 594.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$595 to 599.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$600 to 604.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$605 to 609.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$610 to 614.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$615 to 619.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$620 to 624.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$625 to 629.99

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on June 15, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a simple open vs. close comparison on Binance, while Kalshi uses a 60-second average from CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index at the same timestamp. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure BNB price direction using different data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), different time windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary comparison vs. multi-band price level). This creates settlement risk if the two feeds diverge.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket Up requires Binance close >= open; Kalshi Yes requires CF Benchmarks 60-second average to land in one of 37 specific $5 price bands. If you are hedging across platforms, confirm both feeds are in sync before the event. Consider the liquidity and reliability of each data source independently.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 15. Uses official Binance spot market data. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Price-level prediction using CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves Yes if average falls within any of 37 predefined $5 bands ($515–$704.99+). Covers entire price spectrum with no explicit No outcome. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [range] at 5 PM EDT on Jun 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index collected before 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price range, with ranges of $5 width covering prices from below $515 up to $705 or above. The official price determination uses CF Benchmarks' RTI. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the final resolution value.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect collective trader beliefs about future price direction, distinct from current spot prices or technical analysis. When this market shows elevated odds for BNB moving up, it signals that traders collectively expect bullish momentum or positive catalysts before the June 15 settlement. Conversely, high down-side odds suggest bearish sentiment. These probabilities often diverge from traditional charting or sentiment indices because prediction markets have real financial stakes—traders who misread the outcome lose capital. Comparing the odds across platforms reveals where conviction is strongest and where uncertainty persists.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different odds on the same BNB directional move due to several structural factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, so price discovery happens independently until arbitrage narrows the gap. Polymarket may have deeper retail participation, while Kalshi draws institutional volume, leading to different risk premiums. Additionally, subtle differences in market rules, settlement timing windows, or how each platform defines the outcome can create temporary divergence. Savvy traders monitor both venues to spot mispricings and exploit cross-platform spreads before they close.

BNB price action is sensitive to broader crypto market sentiment, regulatory announcements, and Binance-specific news. Major Bitcoin or Ethereum moves often drag altcoins along, so macro momentum is a key signal. Regulatory clarity on exchange compliance or token utility can shift trader conviction sharply. Binance ecosystem updates, staking changes, or burn events may also influence directional bets. Macroeconomic data—inflation reports, Fed decisions, or geopolitical events—can trigger risk-on or risk-off flows into or out of crypto. Technical levels and options expiry dates on other platforms can create cascading moves. Monitor on-chain metrics, exchange inflows, and social sentiment to anticipate shifts in this market's odds.