TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

Volume:
$592

BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$555 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$580 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$585 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$565 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$570 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$575 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$590 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$595 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$600 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$605 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$610 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$615 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 14, 2026. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome using different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms use different data sources (CF Benchmarks RTI index vs Binance spot BNB/USDT) and different measurement methodologies (60-second average at specific thresholds vs 1-hour candle open/close comparison). Kalshi's 40 threshold conditions also create structural ambiguity about market definition.Hero tip: Clarify with Kalshi whether the 40 conditions represent a single market or 40 separate markets. Monitor price divergence between CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI and Binance BNB/USDT spot price, as these sources may not move in lockstep. Polymarket's binary structure is more straightforward for directional bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average measured before 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. Contains 40 separate Yes-resolution conditions with thresholds ranging from $499.99 to $694.99. Structure suggests either 40 distinct markets or unclear primary threshold definition.
  • Polymarket: Uses Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle data. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 14, 2026. Binary outcome with single, clear resolution source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI collected before 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. The official price is calculated by taking the average of all 60 RTI prices captured in that final minute. Each outcome threshold is evaluated independently—if the average price exceeds a given threshold (e.g., $499.99 for the $500 outcome), that outcome resolves to Yes. Multiple outcomes may resolve to Yes if the final price exceeds multiple thresholds. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative data source; prices from other platforms like Google or Coinbase are for reference only.

Frequently asked questions

The BNB price direction market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether BNB will close higher or lower by the resolution deadline. This dashboard displays the implied probability for each outcome alongside cumulative trading activity, giving you a cross-platform snapshot of how the market is pricing directional movement. By monitoring both venues simultaneously, you can spot pricing divergences and track which outcome is commanding stronger conviction across the prediction market ecosystem.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs about future price direction, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk hedging. Spot prices reflect only the present exchange rate, whereas this market prices the probability of a specific directional move by a fixed deadline. If traders expect volatility or a catalyst, odds may shift sharply even when the spot price remains stable. Comparing the two helps identify whether the market is pricing in conviction or uncertainty about near-term BNB momentum.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, liquidity pools, and user bases, which can create temporary pricing gaps on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in trading fees, settlement rules, and the speed at which new information reaches each platform's order book also contribute to divergence. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific risk tolerances mean gaps can persist. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand which platform's participants hold stronger conviction.

Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting BNB or the broader crypto sector, shifts in Bitcoin or Ethereum momentum, changes to Binance's business operations, and macroeconomic data impacting risk appetite. Technical levels and support/resistance zones can also trigger sharp repricing if BNB approaches them. Social sentiment, exchange inflows/outflows, and derivative market positioning often precede directional moves. Monitoring on-chain metrics, news flow, and competing prediction platforms helps you anticipate shifts in trader conviction before they fully price into this market.