TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET

Volume:
$361

BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2.4¢
N/A
$361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$460 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$465 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$470 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$480 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$555 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$565 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$570 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$575 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 12, 2026. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome using different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental measurement divergence: Polymarket resolves on relative price movement (close >= open) using Binance 1H candle data, while Kalshi resolves on absolute price thresholds using CF Benchmarks RTI index. These are incompatible settlement methodologies with different data sources, making cross-platform hedging impossible and creating potential for simultaneous resolution contradictions.Hero tip: Treat these as entirely separate markets. Polymarket is a directional bet; Kalshi is a series of price-level bets. A Polymarket Up resolution does not predict Kalshi outcomes. Confirm your platform choice and understand which data source (Binance vs CF Benchmarks) you are betting on before entering any position.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional price movement resolution. Resolves to Up if BNB/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on June 12, 2026. Data source: Binance BNB/USDT pair. Resolution occurs after the 1H candle closes and data is finalized.
  • Kalshi: Absolute price threshold resolution. Contains 50 separate Yes/No markets, each resolving to Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (thresholds range from $459.99 to $704.99 in $5 increments). Data source: CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index. Resolution occurs at 5 PM EDT on June 12, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

BNB price resolution uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (RTI) as the authoritative source. At 5 PM EDT on June 12, 2026, sixty individual RTI price points are collected over the preceding sixty seconds. The official settlement value is the simple average of these sixty prices, rounded to two decimal places. Outcome thresholds are set at $5 intervals starting from $460 and extending to $705. If CF Benchmarks data is not published at the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution. Other price sources may serve as reference but do not determine the official outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET event across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the consensus probability that BNB will move up or down by the specified resolution time, along with cross-platform volume and liquidity metrics. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain visibility into how different market participants are pricing this outcome and can identify divergences that may signal arbitrage opportunities or shifting sentiment in the crypto derivatives space.

Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective expectations about BNB's directional movement by June 12, 5PM ET, independent of current spot price. While spot markets price BNB's instantaneous value, prediction markets embed forward-looking sentiment, volatility expectations, and event risk into their odds. The two can diverge significantly if traders anticipate major catalysts, regulatory shifts, or macro moves between now and resolution. Comparing prediction odds to technical analysis or on-chain signals can reveal whether the market is pricing in tail risks or underestimating near-term momentum.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different trader bases with distinct liquidity pools, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight in the U.S., while Polymarket operates globally with different user demographics. Order book depth, market maker participation, and settlement certainty vary between platforms, causing temporary price gaps. Arbitrageurs typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and platform-specific risks can prevent full convergence. Monitoring both venues helps traders identify mispricings and understand which market is leading price discovery for this BNB event.

BNB's price action through June 12, 5PM ET will be shaped by Binance ecosystem developments, broader crypto market sentiment, regulatory announcements, and macroeconomic shifts. Major catalysts include BNB burn events, exchange trading volume spikes, DeFi protocol updates on BNB Chain, and Bitcoin or Ethereum volatility that often drags altcoins. Geopolitical or regulatory news affecting crypto exchanges can also trigger sharp moves. On-chain metrics like active addresses and whale transactions may signal accumulation or distribution ahead of the resolution window, giving traders early directional clues.