TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will BNB/USDT close up or flat on July 3, 7PM ET?

Volume:
$546

BNB Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET

 - Polymarket

BNB Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - July 3, 7PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
$54
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$565 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$675 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
No
kalshi

$575 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

$580 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

$585 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
No
kalshi

$440 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$445 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$450 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$455 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$460 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$465 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$470 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$480 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour candle on July 3, 2026 at 7 PM ET. Polymarket resolves based on whether the candle close is greater than or equal to the open price on Binance. Kalshi uses 50 separate binary markets, each tied to whether the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds specific price thresholds ranging from $439.99 to $684.99.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution times (7 PM ET vs 5 PM EDT), different data sources (Binance BNB/USDT candle vs CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI), and different resolution logic (candle close >= open vs threshold breach). These markets are not equivalent and will not necessarily resolve identically.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets. Polymarket is a simple up/down bet on the 7 PM ET hourly candle close. Kalshi offers 50 granular price-level bets resolved 2 hours earlier using a different benchmark. Monitor both data sources independently and do not cross-hedge assuming identical outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary up/down based on BNB/USDT 1-hour candle on Binance. Resolves Up if close >= open at 7 PM ET on July 3, 2026. Source: Binance BNB/USDT spot pair. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 50 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific price threshold of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT on July 3, 2026. Thresholds range from $439.99 to $684.99. Each resolves Yes if the average exceeds its threshold. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Jul 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI measured before 5 PM EDT on July 3, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the average price exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. At the final minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official value. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase.

Frequently asked questions

The BNB price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether BNB will trade higher or lower by the event deadline. This dashboard surfaces the collective odds from both platforms, showing how the crypto community is pricing directional exposure to BNB. Cross-platform tracking reveals whether consensus is unified or diverging, and highlights which outcome is currently favored. The combined view helps traders spot arbitrage opportunities and gauge conviction levels across the prediction market ecosystem.

Prediction market odds reflect trader conviction about future price direction, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and event risk. While spot markets price the present, this market prices expectations for a specific moment in time. Odds near 50–50 suggest genuine uncertainty, whereas skewed odds signal strong directional bias. Comparing these odds to technical analysis, on-chain metrics, and macro catalysts can reveal whether the market is pricing in known risks or overlooking emerging signals.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, liquidity pools, and user bases, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's order-book model and Polymarket's AMM design also process trades differently, leading to distinct fee structures and slippage profiles. Arbitrageurs monitor these spreads to profit from temporary misalignments, but persistent gaps can reflect platform-specific risk premiums or differences in trader sophistication and capital availability.

Major catalysts include Binance platform announcements, regulatory developments affecting BNB or crypto broadly, Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, macroeconomic data, and shifts in on-chain activity or staking metrics. Unexpected news about the BNB ecosystem—partnerships, burns, or technical upgrades—can trigger rapid repricing. Broader market sentiment, Fed policy shifts, and competing layer-one narratives also influence directional flow. Traders should track social sentiment, whale wallet movements, and derivatives positioning to anticipate momentum shifts before resolution.