TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Will BNB/USDT close up or flat on July 2 at 6PM ET?

Volume:
$1,133

$555 or above

 - Kalshi

$555 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$555 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
Yes
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
$175
Settled
No
kalshi

$565 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

$570 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

$575 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

$445 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$450 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$455 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$460 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$465 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$470 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$475 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$480 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$485 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$490 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$495 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$500 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$535 or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on July 2, 2026 at 6 PM ET. Two platforms offer markets on this outcome, but they use fundamentally different resolution methodologies and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms use incompatible resolution frameworks: Polymarket applies a binary directional test (close >= open) on Binance spot data, while Kalshi uses 40 separate price-level thresholds on a different data source (CF Benchmarks) at a different time (5 PM ET vs 6 PM ET candle close).Hero tip: These markets are not equivalent. Polymarket is a directional bet on BNB/USDT price movement during the 6 PM ET 1-hour candle on Binance. Kalshi offers 40 separate binary bets on whether CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI averages above specific price levels at 5 PM ET. The timing difference (5 PM vs 6 PM), data source difference (CF Benchmarks vs Binance), and resolution logic difference (direction vs absolute level) mean these do not hedge or replicate each other. Confirm which market matches your intended exposure before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market: resolves Up if BNB/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 6 PM ET on July 2, 2026, using Binance BNB/USDT spot data. Otherwise resolves Down. Source: Binance official 1H candle display.
  • Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No markets, each with a fixed price threshold. Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average exceeds the specified threshold at 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. Thresholds range from $444.99 to $639.99. No directional component; purely absolute price level tests.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index serves as the official price source rather than alternative cryptocurrency data providers. At expiration, sixty RTI price samples are gathered and averaged to produce the final reference price. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the average price meets or exceeds its specified threshold. This standardized approach using institutional-grade benchmark data ensures reliable and consistent price determination across all outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

The BNB price movement market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on whether BNB will trade higher or lower by a specific deadline. This dashboard displays the current odds for each outcome, trading volume, and cross-platform price alignment. By monitoring both venues simultaneously, you gain visibility into how different market microstructures and trader bases value the same event, revealing whether consensus is firm or fragmented across prediction platforms.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different regulatory frameworks, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Liquidity depth, settlement rules, and the timing of order flow also vary between platforms. Traders on one venue may react faster to news, or arbitrage opportunities may persist if transaction costs outweigh the spread. Monitoring both prices helps you identify mispricings and understand which platform's consensus is leading price discovery on this event.

Major catalysts include Binance ecosystem announcements, regulatory developments affecting BNB or crypto broadly, Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite. Token burns, staking updates, or exchange listing news can drive directional conviction. Market-wide volatility spikes often compress or widen odds rapidly as traders hedge or take fresh positions. Monitoring on-chain metrics, developer activity, and news flow will help you anticipate shifts in this market's pricing before they fully materialize.