TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 7, 5PM ET
Volume:
$2,150
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down on April 7, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average at the exact timestamp. Both measure directional price movement but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price sources (Binance spot BNB/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index), different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary Up/Down vs. 40 threshold tiers). This creates potential for conflicting outcomes if the two price feeds diverge.Hero Tip:
Monitor both Binance BNB/USDT and CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI in the hour leading to 5 PM ET on April 7. If they trade at different levels, Polymarket and Kalshi may resolve oppositely. Polymarket's binary structure is simpler; Kalshi's 40 thresholds require you to know which specific tier your position targets. Prefer Polymarket if you want clarity on Binance spot; use Kalshi only if you are comfortable with index-based pricing and have confirmed your exact threshold.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open at 5 PM ET. Uses official Binance spot exchange data. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No thresholds tied to CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. Thresholds range from $499.99 to $694.99 in $5–$10 increments. Resolves Yes if average exceeds the specified threshold. Key Quote: 'the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold].'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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