TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB/USD price moves up or down at 5 PM ET on April 3, 2026. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average at the same timestamp. Both measure directional price movement but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Settlement Value Mismatch and Data Source Fragility. Polymarket resolves on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle open-close comparison; Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average against 49 discrete price thresholds. Different data sources, time windows, and methodologies create independent resolution paths.Hero Tip:
These markets measure price direction using incompatible benchmarks. Polymarket's binary outcome (Up if close >= open) is independent of Kalshi's tiered threshold outcomes. A single price event at 5 PM ET will produce two separate resolutions. Confirm your position's exposure to Binance spot price vs. CF Benchmarks index before settlement. Arbitrage risk exists if one platform's data lags or diverges from the other.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Binary Up/Down resolution based on BNB/USDT 1-hour candle close vs. open on Binance. Resolves Up if close >= open. Uses single exchange spot price data from Binance API/charting. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'Kalshi:
49 tiered Yes/No outcomes based on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves Yes if average exceeds any threshold from $489.99 to $734.99. Uses institutional benchmark index, not exchange spot price. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]...'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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