TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct data sources and measurement methodologies create independent resolution paths. Polymarket uses Binance BNB/USDT spot candle open/close; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average across 40 predefined price bands.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with correlated but non-identical outcomes. Polymarket resolves binary (Up or Down); Kalshi resolves Yes if price lands in any covered band (which is highly likely given coverage). Watch for basis risk between Binance spot and CF Benchmarks index, especially in the final 60 seconds before 5 PM ET.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional outcome based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open, Down otherwise. Single source of truth: Binance spot market price displayed on their trading interface.
- Kalshi: Categorical outcome across 40 price bands using CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI index. Resolves Yes if 60-second average before 5 PM EDT falls within any defined band ($530-$534.99, $535-$539.99, ... $715-$719.99, or above $719.99). Covers nearly all realistic price levels.
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