TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks index), different measurement windows (1H candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution structures (single binary vs. 40 tiered thresholds). While both measure BNB price at approximately 5 PM ET on Apr 26, 2026, the outcomes may diverge due to source price differences and timing precision.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with correlated but non-identical outcomes. Polymarket resolves based on whether Binance BNB/USDT close >= open for the 1H candle. Kalshi has 40 separate markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average exceeds a specific threshold. Monitor both data feeds in real-time and do not assume arbitrage opportunities—basis risk is high due to source and timing differences.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance BNB/USDT 1H candle. Resolves Up if close >= open; Down otherwise. Single data source (Binance), simple directional logic. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($534.99 to $729.99). Each threshold is a distinct market. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [THRESHOLD] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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