TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure different price references (CF Benchmarks RTI discrete bands vs Binance BNB/USDT candle open/close) and use incompatible resolution logic. A price movement that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other.Hero Tip:
These markets are NOT hedges for each other. Kalshi's 40 YES bands cover approximately $545-$734.99 with specific gaps; Polymarket is a binary directional bet on Binance candle close vs open. Confirm your exposure to the correct data source and resolution method before the 5 PM ET settlement time on April 23, 2026.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average falls within any of 40 discrete price bands ($560-564.99, $565-569.99, $570-574.99, $575-579.99, $580-584.99, $585-589.99, $590-594.99, $595-599.99, $600-604.99, $605-609.99, $610-614.99, $615-619.99, $620-624.99, $625-629.99, $630-634.99, $635-639.99, $640-644.99, $645-649.99, $650-654.99, $655-659.99, $660-664.99, $665-669.99, $670-674.99, $675-679.99, $680-684.99, $685-689.99, $690-694.99, $695-699.99, $700-704.99, $705-709.99, $710-714.99, $715-719.99, $720-724.99, $725-729.99, $730-734.99, or below $545). Resolves NO only if price falls in unlisted gaps or above $734.99 (though rule 40 covers above $734.99 as YES). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is [band] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if BNB/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 23, 2026 (using Binance official data). Resolves DOWN if close < open. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
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