TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 17, 2026. Kalshi offers 50 granular price-level markets (each resolving Yes if the 60-second CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI average exceeds specific thresholds), while Polymarket offers a single binary Up/Down market based on Binance's 1H candle close vs. open. The core question is identical: directional movement of BNB price at a specific time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle open vs. close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average price thresholds. These are different data sources, different time windows, and different resolution criteria that will produce contradictory outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade this group across both platforms expecting consistent payouts. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement (up = close >= open). On Kalshi, you are betting on absolute price levels against 50 different thresholds. A market could resolve YES on one platform and NO on the other. Choose your platform carefully based on which resolution source you trust more.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to UP if BNB/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price on Binance at the specified time. Resolves to DOWN otherwise. Single binary outcome based on directional comparison. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Resolves to YES if the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds any of 50 different price thresholds ($479.99 through $724.99). Each threshold is a separate YES condition. No explicit NO condition provided. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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