TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 14, 5PM ET
Volume:
$484
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down at a specific moment (April 14, 5PM ET). Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average at the same timestamp. Both measure directional price movement but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two different data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks RTI index), two different time windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second pre-event average), and two different resolution logics (binary up/down vs. 40 price-level thresholds) create material risk of conflicting outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Do not treat Polymarket and Kalshi as fungible. Polymarket is a directional bet on Binance's official 1H candle close; Kalshi is a series of price-level bets on a CF Benchmarks 60-second rolling average. The two can diverge. Confirm your platform choice and understand which data feed you are betting on before entry.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down on Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close >= open for the 1H candle beginning at 5PM ET on April 14, 2026. Source: Binance official BNB/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close [C] and open [O] displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No price-level markets on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI. Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of BNBUSD_RTI in the 60 seconds BEFORE 5PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $494.99 to $689.99). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold]... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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