TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$1,043
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB/USD price moves up or down during a 4-hour window on April 12, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses a simple price comparison (end vs. start) via Chainlink data, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI with 32 distinct price-level thresholds, all measured at 5:00 PM EDT.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket measures price movement over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET) using Chainlink BNB/USD data, while Kalshi measures 16 distinct price thresholds at a single point in time (5:00 PM EDT) using CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI. These differences make it impossible for both markets to resolve identically under most realistic price scenarios.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve the same way. Polymarket resolves based on directional movement (Up or Down) over 4 hours; Kalshi resolves based on whether the price exceeds specific thresholds at exactly 5:00 PM EDT. If you trade both, you are exposed to timing risk (5 PM vs 8 PM), source risk (Chainlink vs CF Benchmarks), and measurement risk (relative change vs absolute level). Verify which platform's resolution source and time window matches your trading thesis.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on directional price movement (Up if end-of-window price >= start-of-window price, Down otherwise) over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on April 12) using Chainlink BNB/USD data stream as the sole source. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves to Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds any of 16 distinct price thresholds (ranging from $504.99 to $699.99) at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on April 12, 2026. Each threshold is a separate Yes/No condition. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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