TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET
Volume:
$2,545
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down on April 10, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average at the same timestamp. Both markets resolve based on price movement at the identical moment, but measure against fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure BNB price movement using incompatible data sources (Binance spot 1H candle vs. CF Benchmarks 60-second BNBUSD_RTI average) and incompatible outcome structures (binary Up/Down vs. 50-tier Yes/No ladder). Both resolve at 5 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, but the underlying price feeds and calculation windows differ materially.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BNB/USDT candle open/close; Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks professional index. Price divergence between these sources is common. If you trade both, hedge separately and monitor the CF Benchmarks feed independently. Timing of candle finalization on Binance vs. the 60-second averaging window on Kalshi could also create slippage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution. Compares close price >= open price for the 1-hour BNB/USDT candle starting at 5 PM ET on April 10. Data source: Binance BNB/USDT spot pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 50-outcome Yes/No ladder. Resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds one of 50 thresholds ($459.99 to $704.99 in $5 increments). Data source: CF Benchmarks professional price index. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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