TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of BNB cryptocurrency at a specific future moment, dividing possible outcomes into narrow price bands. The resolution depends on precise measurement of the asset's value at a defined time, using a standardized data source to ensure consistency.
All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on Sep 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range: if the calculated average falls within a given range, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The official price is determined exclusively by CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration and averaged to produce the final value. External price sources like Google or Coinbase are provided only as reference guides and do not affect the outcome. Markets cover consecutive, non-overlapping price bands from $629.99 or below up to $870 or above, ensuring exactly one market will resolve to Yes.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect what traders believe is the probability of BNB trading within specific price ranges on the target date. This differs from simply looking at current spot prices or analyst forecasts, as this market represents a collective forecast based on real money at stake. If a significant number of traders believe the spot price expectations are inaccurate, they can express that view by trading in this market, influencing the odds. This creates a dynamic comparison between market-based expectations and broader sentiment surrounding BNB's future price.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different BNB price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of BNB falling within that range at the specified time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own research and expectations, leading to a constantly updating price discovery process. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information from a diverse range of participants, forming a collective prediction about the future BNB price.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome determined by verifying the price of BNB at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026, against credible public reporting. The price will be sourced from major cryptocurrency exchanges to ensure accuracy and transparency. The contracts corresponding to the price range that BNB falls within will pay out, while others will expire worthless. This process ensures a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome based on real-world data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or shifts in investor sentiment, could influence BNB’s price. News regarding Binance, the exchange associated with BNB, including technological upgrades, security breaches, or legal challenges, would likely cause movement. Macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or inflation, could also play a role. Finally, significant adoption of the BNB chain for decentralized applications or partnerships could positively influence the market.