TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of BNB cryptocurrency at a specific moment, dividing possible outcomes into narrow, consecutive price bands. Each band represents a distinct range that the price could fall into during the measurement window, allowing for precise betting on where the price will land.
The event determines the resolution based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real Time Index (RTI) prices immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market resolving to 'Yes' is the one whose range encompasses this calculated average. The official price is derived from averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. It is important to note that while common sources like Google or Coinbase may be used for reference, they do not determine the outcome; only the CF Benchmarks RTI is authoritative for this event.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where traders believe the price of BNB will be on September 11, 2026. These expectations are formed by individuals weighing various factors, including future supply and demand, regulatory developments, and broader cryptocurrency market trends. Compared to typical spot price expectations derived from analysts or polls, this market aggregates a diverse range of informed opinions into a single, quantifiable probability distribution. This allows for a dynamic comparison of what the 'wisdom of the crowd' predicts versus more traditional forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for BNB. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the likelihood of each price range being correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Contract prices are displayed in USD, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final BNB price and trading accordingly. The current volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding different price outcomes.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the price of BNB, as reported by a widely-recognized and authoritative cryptocurrency exchange, at 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. The contract corresponding to the price range that includes the actual BNB price at that time will pay out $1 per contract, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrencies, particularly those impacting Binance or BNB, would likely cause substantial price fluctuations. Significant technological advancements or security breaches related to the BNB chain could also have a large impact. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or global economic conditions, and overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market will also play a role. Finally, any major partnerships or adoption announcements involving BNB could shift trader expectations and influence the market.