TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event segments BNB's price on June 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges. Participants select which range they believe BNB will fall within, with bands spanning from below $475 up to $665 and above. The final price is determined by averaging 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNB Real-Time Index data.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 24, 2026. The price is divided into mutually exclusive ranges, each representing a distinct outcome. The first range covers prices below $475, followed by consecutive $5 bands (e.g., $475-479.99, $480-484.99) continuing through the highest range of $665 and above. The market resolves to Yes for whichever range contains the calculated 60-second average. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, with the final value derived from averaging all 60 individual prices collected during the final minute before expiration.
Prediction market odds often diverge from spot market prices because they reflect trader conviction about future outcomes rather than current valuations. On this market, odds incorporate forward-looking sentiment, risk premiums, and positioning that may not be fully priced into live BNB spot trading. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders expect BNB to appreciate, depreciate, or consolidate. These odds serve as a crowdsourced forecast distinct from any single exchange's current price.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each BNB price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on that outcome, and the price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome; tighter spreads typically indicate higher confidence in a particular price range. The platform's matching engine continuously updates odds as new orders flow in, ensuring prices remain responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by verifying BNB's price against credible public sources at that specific moment. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed, the winning outcome is paid out and all other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is final and binding; traders should monitor the approach to the deadline to ensure they are comfortable with their positions before settlement occurs.
Major catalysts for this market include BNB ecosystem announcements, regulatory developments affecting Binance, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements. Layer-1 blockchain adoption metrics, staking yield changes, and token burn schedules can also influence trader positioning. Broader crypto market sentiment, Fed policy shifts, and geopolitical events that impact risk-on trading may drive significant repricing. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and news from the Binance ecosystem to anticipate shifts in market odds.