TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 14, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides BNB's price on June 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific ranges, with each range representing a mutually exclusive outcome. The price is determined using CF Benchmarks' BNB Real-Time Index averaged over 60 seconds.
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI collected before 5 PM EDT on June 14, 2026. The final price is calculated by averaging all 60 RTI prices captured in that final minute. Exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes, corresponding to the price range in which the average falls. The ranges are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, covering all possible prices from below $505 to $695 and above. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative data source; prices from other platforms are for reference only.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregate trader conviction about where BNB will settle, often diverging from current spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk hedging. While spot markets react to immediate news and technical flows, this market prices in longer-dated uncertainty and consensus expectations across many participants. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether the crowd is pricing in bullish, bearish, or range-bound scenarios relative to conventional price targets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each BNB price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform converts bid-ask spreads into implied probabilities, so tighter spreads indicate higher confidence in a particular range, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty. Traders can enter limit or market orders to express their view, and the equilibrium price reflects the marginal trader's belief about the likelihood of each bracket at settlement.
This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by where BNB is trading at that specific moment. The winning bracket is verified against credible public sources to confirm the price level. All shares corresponding to the correct range are paid out at full value, while incorrect brackets expire worthless. Early traders can exit positions before resolution by selling their shares back into the order book.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting BNB or the broader crypto sector, shifts in macroeconomic conditions, changes to Binance's business operations, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements. On-chain metrics such as exchange inflows, whale accumulation, and network activity can also shift trader positioning. Geopolitical events, central bank policy shifts, and competing layer-one blockchain developments may influence sentiment. Technical breakouts or breakdowns could trigger momentum-driven repricing as traders adjust their range expectations.