TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of BNB cryptocurrency at a specific moment, using a precise measurement method to determine the outcome. The resolution depends on where the price falls within predefined ranges at a set time, ensuring an objective and transparent process.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market associated with the range that contains this average price resolves to Yes, with all others resolving to No. The official price is determined by collecting 60 RTI prices during the last minute before expiration and averaging them. It is important to note that while various sources may report slightly different prices, the resolution strictly uses CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) as the definitive source. This method ensures consistency and objectivity in determining the outcome, accounting for potential discrepancies across different data providers.
Compared to typical spot price forecasts from analysts or polls, prediction market odds in this market reflect a probabilistic view shaped by trader sentiment and recent price action. While traditional forecasts may give a single expected value, this market breaks down expectations into ranges, often showing higher or lower probabilities for certain bands depending on current volatility and macro conditions.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts that correspond to different price ranges. The current odds reflect the aggregated beliefs of participants about where BNB will fall by the resolution date, with liquidity and volume influencing how tightly priced each range is. This continuous trading process ensures that prices adjust dynamically to new information.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. At that point, the closing price of BNB will be checked against the defined ranges, and the matching contract will settle as the winner based on transparent, publicly available data. No subjective judgment is involved — the result is purely factual.
Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Major announcements from Binance, regulatory updates affecting cryptocurrencies, or broad market volatility triggered by macroeconomic events may all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, significant movements in correlated assets or shifts in investor sentiment toward altcoins could cause rapid repricing of the probability weights across different price ranges on Kalshi.