TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 3, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides BNB's price on July 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges, from below $445 up to $685 and above. Each outcome represents a distinct price band, and the market resolves to the outcome matching where the price falls within these ranges.
Resolution is determined by the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI measured before 5 PM EDT on July 3, 2026. The price is categorized into consecutive price bands, with each outcome covering a specific range. At the final minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official value. The market resolves to the outcome corresponding to the price band containing the measured average. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source.
Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively believe will happen, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market prices in longer-term expectations and tail risks over months. If most traders expect BNB to appreciate, odds will skew toward higher ranges; if they fear downside, lower brackets gain probability weight. Comparing these odds to your own conviction—or to consensus analyst price targets—helps identify whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to mainstream expectations.
On Kalshi, traders directly set prices through an order-book mechanism where each price range bracket trades as a separate contract. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Your buy or sell order matches against existing liquidity, and the market price for each bracket reflects the marginal trade. Tighter spreads indicate higher confidence and deeper liquidity; wider spreads suggest uncertainty or thinner participation. As new information arrives—regulatory news, BNB ecosystem developments, or broader crypto sentiment shifts—traders reprrice their positions, and bracket odds adjust in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, when the specified time window closes. The outcome is determined by where BNB actually trades at that moment, verified against credible public sources such as major exchange data or price feeds. Whichever price range bracket contains the settlement price is marked correct; all other brackets expire worthless. Traders holding shares in the winning bracket receive their payout, making accuracy in predicting that specific price window the sole determinant of profit or loss.
Major catalysts include BNB ecosystem announcements, regulatory developments affecting Binance or crypto broadly, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements. Staking changes, token burns, or new chain upgrades could shift bullish sentiment. Conversely, exchange enforcement actions, market crashes, or geopolitical shocks typically drive traders toward lower price brackets. Technical levels and options expiry dates on other venues may also influence positioning. Monitoring on-chain metrics, developer activity, and broader crypto sentiment will help you anticipate how this market reprices ahead of settlement.