TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides BNB's price on July 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT into discrete price ranges, allowing traders to bet on which specific band the price will fall within at that time.
Resolution is determined by the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) calculated immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 24, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome whose range contains the final average price. CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI is the authoritative price source, not alternative platforms like Google or Coinbase. At the final minute before expiration, 60 individual RTI prices are collected and averaged to produce the official and final value.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas spot prices show what BNB costs right now. This market aggregates forward-looking bets on a specific future price range, capturing trader conviction about volatility, adoption catalysts, and macro conditions between now and the event date. Spot prices react to immediate supply and demand; prediction odds incorporate longer-term expectations and risk assessment, often diverging when the market prices in tail risks or consensus shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different BNB price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome carries a fractional price between 0 and 1, reflecting the implied probability that BNB will settle within that range. As traders place bids and offers, the market price adjusts in real time, and the spread between buy and sell prices narrows or widens based on liquidity and conviction.
This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, when the event occurs and the outcome becomes verifiable. The result is confirmed once BNB's price at that moment is established from credible public sources, determining which range outcome is correct. Traders holding shares in the winning range receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The exact settlement price is locked in at the specified time and date.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting BNB or crypto broadly, shifts in Bitcoin or Ethereum prices, Binance platform developments, macroeconomic policy changes, and shifts in institutional adoption. Technical breakouts or breakdowns on the daily chart can trigger rapid repricing. Sentiment swings driven by news cycles, exchange listings, or protocol upgrades also influence trader positioning. Volatility spikes or sustained trends in the broader crypto market will likely shift odds as traders reassess the probability of each price range outcome.