TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market divides BNB's possible price range into specific bands on July 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Participants select which $5 price range they believe BNB will occupy, with outcomes spanning from $449.99 or below up to $640 or above.
The market resolves based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI prices collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Index is the authoritative price source, not alternative cryptocurrency data platforms. At the moment of expiration, sixty individual RTI prices are sampled and their simple average is calculated to determine the final reference price. The resulting average price determines which specific price range outcome is correct. This methodology using institutional-grade benchmark data ensures consistent, reliable price determination and prevents disputes over which price source to use.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction about where BNB will settle, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and event risk. While spot exchanges show today's price, this market prices in uncertainty and potential volatility over the coming months. Comparing the implied probabilities here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders are pricing in bullish or bearish catalysts. The odds tend to shift as new information emerges, making them a useful barometer of collective expectations distinct from static price quotes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out if that bracket resolves true, creating a direct incentive for accurate pricing. The bid-ask spread reflects liquidity and disagreement among participants; tighter spreads indicate higher confidence and deeper order flow. As traders update their views, the implied probability for each range adjusts in real time, with the most liquid outcomes typically offering the tightest execution costs.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by verifying BNB's price at that specific moment against credible public sources. Once the event timestamp passes and the price is confirmed, the market settles to the range bracket that contains the actual price. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The resolution is final once the price data is publicly available and cross-checked.
Major catalysts for this market include BNB ecosystem announcements, regulatory developments affecting Binance, macroeconomic shifts in crypto sentiment, and Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements. Technical milestones on the BNB chain, token burns, or changes to staking rewards can also shift trader expectations. Broader market events—such as Fed policy shifts, institutional adoption news, or exchange regulatory actions—often ripple through altcoin valuations. Monitoring on-chain metrics, developer activity, and news flow will help you anticipate how this market reprices as new information surfaces.