TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides BNB's price on July 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT into distinct price ranges. Participants select which range they believe the price will fall within, with each range representing a $5 increment.
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty consecutive one-second prices from CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) collected in the final minute before 5 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. Each outcome represents a mutually exclusive price range, and exactly one outcome will resolve to Yes based on where the calculated average falls. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, often diverging from current spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment and event risk. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market prices in expectations about BNB's trajectory over months, including potential regulatory shifts, adoption trends, and macroeconomic factors. Comparing the implied price range here to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to consensus views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out if that range is correct at settlement, and the current bid-ask spread reflects the market's confidence in each band. Tighter spreads indicate higher certainty; wider spreads suggest genuine disagreement about where BNB will land.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by where BNB trades at that specific moment. The winning price range is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting of BNB's price at the settlement time. All shares corresponding to the correct range pay out in full; all others expire worthless.
Major catalysts include Binance regulatory announcements, shifts in crypto market sentiment, macroeconomic policy changes, and BNB-specific developments like ecosystem upgrades or exchange listing changes. Broader Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements often correlate with BNB, so tracking those markets provides early signals. On-chain metrics such as exchange inflows, whale accumulation, and staking activity can also shift trader conviction about where the price will settle by mid-2026.