TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides BNB's price on July 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT into specific price ranges. Participants bet on which range BNB will fall within, from below $450 to above $640. The resolution uses CF Benchmarks' BNB Real-Time Index, averaging 60 price points collected in the final minute before expiration.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 1, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the 60-second average (e.g., between $450-454.99 for the second outcome, between $455-459.99 for the third, etc.). The official price is calculated as the mean of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute, ensuring consistent institutional-grade pricing independent of retail cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively believe will happen, whereas spot price expectations reflect current market sentiment on crypto exchanges. This market aggregates forward-looking views from participants willing to stake capital on their conviction about BNB's price range. Unlike passive spot prices, prediction odds incorporate uncertainty and time decay, showing not just where BNB trades today but where informed traders expect it to settle by July 2026. Comparing the two can highlight whether the crypto market is pricing in bullish or bearish momentum relative to what prediction traders foresee.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each BNB price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each price band has its own contract, and the odds for each range are derived from the ratio of buy and sell orders at any given time. As traders adjust their positions based on new information or changing conviction, the probabilities shift dynamically. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, with all trades visible on the order book.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, when BNB's spot price at that specific moment is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which price range bracket contains BNB's actual trading price at the settlement time. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed, the corresponding range contract pays out in full, and all other range contracts expire worthless. Participants who correctly predicted the price band receive their winnings proportional to their position size.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting BNB or the broader crypto sector, shifts in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, developments at Binance, macroeconomic policy changes, and adoption milestones for blockchain infrastructure. Technical levels and support/resistance zones on BNB's chart can also trigger trader repositioning. Sentiment swings driven by market-wide volatility, institutional inflows, or geopolitical events may cause sharp repricing. As the resolution date approaches, this market will likely tighten around the most probable range, with late-stage trading reflecting final consensus on where BNB will settle.