TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether the Binance Coin (BNB) cryptocurrency reaches various price thresholds by a specific date and time. Each market corresponds to a different price level, resolving based on the average price of BNB in the final minute before the deadline.
All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real Time Index (RTI) prices immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' this average must exceed the specified threshold (e.g., $624.99, $629.99, etc.). The official price is determined exclusively by CF Benchmarks' RTI data, collected from the last minute before expiration and averaged across sixty seconds. This methodology ensures consistency across all thresholds, with each market independently evaluating whether its particular price target has been met.
Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast of what traders believe the BNB price will be on September 25, 2026. These expectations can differ from those reflected in traditional spot price forecasts or analyst predictions. This market aggregates diverse opinions, potentially revealing insights not captured by single-source forecasts. It’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, reflecting expectations about future events, while spot prices reflect current values. Examining the difference between these can be a valuable exercise for anyone following the cryptocurrency market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future BNB price. As more traders participate, the prices of these contracts adjust, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. Higher demand for contracts predicting a higher BNB price will drive up those contract prices, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of BNB as reported by a widely recognized and trusted cryptocurrency exchange at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. The specific price used for resolution will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures for verifying market data at the time of settlement. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or shifts in investor sentiment, could influence the BNB price. Specific news related to Binance, the exchange associated with BNB, like technological upgrades, security breaches, or legal challenges, would also be key catalysts. Macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or inflation, could also play a role. Finally, the overall adoption rate of the BNB chain and its ecosystem will be a crucial signal for traders in this market.