TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the closing price of a specific cryptocurrency at a precise future moment, using a standardized measurement method to determine outcomes across multiple thresholds. The resolution depends on real-time market data captured during a defined window, ensuring consistency despite fluctuations in exchange rates.
The event resolves based on the simple average of BNBUSD_RTI prices collected by CF Benchmarks during the sixty seconds before 5 PM EDT on September 18, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from $585.00 to $830.00, and resolves to "Yes" if the calculated average exceeds the respective threshold by midnight EDT on the same day. The official price is derived exclusively from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the final value determined by averaging 60 RTI prices taken in the final minute before expiration. Participants are advised that external sources like Google or Coinbase may show different values, and the RTI methodology ensures a standardized, reliable benchmark for all outcomes.
Prediction market odds offer a unique perspective on future BNB prices, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. Often, these odds diverge from simple polling data or analyst forecasts, as participants have a financial stake in accurately predicting the outcome. This market, in particular, allows individuals to express their beliefs about the future value of BNB and profit if their predictions are correct. Comparing these odds to broader market expectations can reveal valuable insights into the level of confidence surrounding BNB’s performance and potential price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes for BNB. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution for the future price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices that accurately reflect their beliefs, as they profit from correct predictions and lose from incorrect ones. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence regarding BNB’s potential price on the specified date.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the price of one BNB, in US dollars, as reported by a widely-recognized and trusted source at 5:00 PM EDT on September 18, 2026. The exact source used for verification will be determined by Kalshi and made publicly available prior to resolution. The goal is to ensure a transparent and accurate determination of the final price.
Several factors could significantly impact the BNB price market. Major developments within the Binance ecosystem, such as regulatory changes, technological upgrades to the BNB Chain, or shifts in the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment, could all cause substantial price fluctuations. Broader macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or global economic recessions, could also influence investor behavior and impact the price of BNB. Additionally, significant news regarding competing cryptocurrencies or advancements in blockchain technology could shift market attention and affect this market’s trajectory.