TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether the Binance Coin (BNB) cryptocurrency will trade above specific price thresholds at a precise moment in time. Each market corresponds to a different price level, allowing participants to assess various potential outcomes for BNB's value on a set date and time.
All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. If this average exceeds the specified threshold for a given market (e.g., $589.99, $594.99, etc.), that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined exclusively by CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the final value calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. Participants are cautioned that prices displayed on platforms like Google or Coinbase may differ from the RTI-derived value used for resolution.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the BNB price that may differ from those found in traditional spot price expectations or analyst predictions. This market aggregates the views of many individual traders, creating a wisdom-of-the-crowd estimate. If a significant number of analysts predict a specific price range, we might see corresponding shifts in the odds on Kalshi. However, the market can also react to unexpected news or events, potentially diverging from pre-existing forecasts and offering a unique perspective on the likely BNB price.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the BNB price will be above or below a certain level at the specified time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater probability of the event occurring. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market continuously updates to reflect the latest information and sentiment. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of the BNB price outlook.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of BNB as reported by a widely recognized and trusted exchange at 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2026. The specific price used for resolution will be determined by the platform's standard procedures for verifying market data. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the final BNB price at resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 11, 2026. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or shifts in investor sentiment, could impact the BNB price. News regarding Binance, the exchange associated with BNB, including security breaches, technological advancements, or legal challenges, would also be a key driver. Macroeconomic factors, like global economic growth or inflation rates, and broader trends in blockchain technology adoption could also influence trading activity and the overall price of BNB in this market.