TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 22, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks BNB's price at a specific moment on June 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The price is determined by taking the average of 60 individual price readings from CF Benchmarks' BNB Real-Time Index collected in the final minute before the deadline.
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 22, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold specified for that outcome. The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not other cryptocurrency data providers. At the final minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the official resolution value.
Prediction market odds and spot prices reflect different signals. Spot prices on exchanges like Binance show the current market-clearing rate for immediate trades, while this market captures forward-looking consensus about BNB's value at a defined future moment. Traders in prediction markets often incorporate longer-term sentiment, regulatory outlook, and macroeconomic factors that may not be fully priced into today's spot rate. Comparing the two can reveal whether the crowd expects BNB to appreciate, depreciate, or stabilize relative to today's level.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different BNB price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract reflects a specific price band, and the market price of each share fluctuates based on supply and demand. As new information arrives—whether from on-chain metrics, news, or broader crypto sentiment—traders adjust their positions, and the odds shift accordingly. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once BNB's price at that specific time is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on the actual spot price of BNB at the designated moment, compared against the price bands defined in the contract terms. Once the event occurs and the price is established, Kalshi settles all positions based on which range the final price falls into, and traders receive payouts accordingly.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market significantly. Major regulatory announcements affecting BNB or the broader crypto sector, changes to Binance's business operations or compliance status, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements, and shifts in institutional adoption could all influence trader positioning. Technical developments on the BNB Chain, token burns or supply changes, and geopolitical events affecting crypto markets may also drive repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust their forecasts before settlement.