TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks BNB's price on June 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT across multiple price thresholds. Participants predict whether BNB will reach or exceed specific price levels, with outcomes ranging from $485 to $680. The final price is determined by averaging 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNB Real-Time Index data collected at the exact expiration time.
Resolution is based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 21, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold; the market resolves to Yes for any outcome where the 60-second average exceeds the threshold value (e.g., above $484.99 for the $485 outcome, above $489.99 for the $490 outcome, etc.). CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source rather than general market data from exchanges like Google or Coinbase. The official final value is calculated as the average of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute before expiration.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will happen, which often diverges from current spot prices on crypto exchanges. While spot markets show what BNB costs right now, this market prices in expectations about future price movement over the coming months. Traders incorporate news, technical analysis, and macroeconomic signals into their positions. The gap between current spot price and the implied price from market odds can reveal whether traders expect appreciation or depreciation, offering a contrarian view to traditional exchange data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing different BNB price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the probability of a specific price range or level at the resolution time. Traders compete to set bids and asks, and the market price emerges from supply and demand. As new information arrives—regulatory news, exchange updates, or broader crypto sentiment shifts—traders adjust positions, moving the odds in real time.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on where BNB is actually trading at that specific moment. Traders who correctly predicted the price range or level receive their payout, while those on the wrong side of the trade realize losses. The finality of the outcome depends on transparent, widely-available price data at the resolution timestamp.
Major catalysts for this market include Binance platform developments, regulatory announcements affecting BNB or crypto broadly, Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, and macroeconomic shifts. Token burns or staking changes can influence holder sentiment. Exchange listings or delistings, security incidents, or shifts in DeFi activity tied to the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem also matter. Broader crypto adoption news, central bank policy moves, and institutional capital flows into or out of the sector will likely drive trader positioning and reshape odds as the resolution date approaches.