TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks BNB's price at a specific moment on July 6, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Traders predict whether BNB will reach or exceed various price thresholds, ranging from $475 up to $670. The resolution uses CF Benchmarks' official BNB Real-Time Index averaged over 60 seconds.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real-Time Index (BNBUSD_RTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 6, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with Yes outcomes triggered when the average price exceeds the threshold value (e.g., above $474.99 for the $475 outcome, above $479.99 for the $480 outcome, continuing through $670). The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than other cryptocurrency data providers. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to determine the final resolution value.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to bet on, which often diverges from current spot prices on crypto exchanges. While spot markets show what BNB costs right now, this market captures forward-looking sentiment about where the price will settle on the specified date. Traders in prediction markets incorporate news, technical analysis, and macroeconomic factors into their positions, sometimes moving odds ahead of or behind actual price movements. Comparing the two can reveal whether the prediction community expects BNB to appreciate, depreciate, or remain stable relative to today's levels.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects a discrete price range or point estimate, and the market price of those shares—expressed as a percentage or decimal—represents the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new orders flow in, prices adjust in real time. You can place limit or market orders to enter or exit positions, and your fill price depends on the current bid-ask spread and order flow at that moment.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once BNB's price at that specific time is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution process compares the actual market price against the predicted range or level embedded in the market's contract terms. Once the event occurs and the price is established, the market settles automatically, and traders' positions are credited or debited based on whether their prediction was correct. No further trading occurs after resolution.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting BNB or the broader crypto sector, shifts in Bitcoin or Ethereum prices, developments at Binance, macroeconomic policy changes, and adoption milestones for BNB's blockchain ecosystem. Technical levels and support-resistance zones can also trigger trader repositioning. Sentiment shifts driven by social media, institutional inflows, or market-wide volatility spikes may cause rapid repricing. Monitoring on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and news from Binance and the crypto community will help you anticipate moves before they're fully priced in.