TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks whether the Binance Coin (BNB) cryptocurrency reaches specific price thresholds by a set time. It uses a standardized method to calculate the average price over a brief window, ensuring consistency across all thresholds for that moment.
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for BNB on July 31, 2026, at 5 PM EDT. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome, resolving to 'Yes' if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT exceeds the specified value. The official price is derived from the average of 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected in the final minute before expiration. All markets share this methodology, ensuring uniform calculation and data source for determining outcomes, with each threshold acting as an independent condition.
On Kalshi, the current probability reflects trader sentiment about the BNB price market more than traditional spot forecasts. While analysts might highlight different catalysts or targets, this market’s odds synthesize real-time trading behavior and positioning. Traders often see this as a leading indicator, especially when volume hits $23 over 24 hours. The gap between these odds and spot predictions can widen before Jul 31, 2026, depending on macro news or exchange-specific flows. Comparing this market to polling data helps gauge whether the crowd leans bullish or bearish relative to mainstream views.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of BNB at the specified time will be compared against the market’s settled value, determining which side wins based on data from reliable, widely accepted sources.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major BNB project announcements, regulatory updates affecting Binance or BNB, macroeconomic shifts influencing crypto markets, and unexpected exchange outages. Traders will also watch key support and resistance levels, as well as broader market sentiment, all of which can cause rapid repricing in the weeks ahead.