TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 21, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the price of a specific cryptocurrency at a precise moment, using a standardized method to calculate the final value from real-time data collected over a short period. Multiple thresholds are set, each determining a separate outcome based on whether the calculated average exceeds that threshold.
The event resolves based on the simple average price of BNB (Binance Coin) as measured by CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD Real Time Index (RTI) during the sixty seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on August 21, 2026. For each defined threshold — ranging from $480 to $725 — if the calculated average exceeds the specified amount (e.g., $479.99 for $480 or above), the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' The official price is derived from averaging sixty RTI data points collected in the final minute before expiration. All markets share this core mechanism, differing only in their respective price thresholds.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi offer a forward-looking view that often diverges from current spot price expectations. Traders factor in upcoming events, macro trends, and market sentiment when placing bets, which can push odds higher or lower than today’s actual price. This market synthesizes a range of forecasts, sometimes aligning closely with analyst predictions and sometimes highlighting contrarian views.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting collective expectations for BNB’s value at the specified time. The market price adjusts dynamically based on trading volume and recent price movements, capturing how participants interpret future conditions for the asset.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. At that point, the closing BNB price at 5pm EDT on the specified date will be compared against the market’s settled value, determining which outcome is paid out to participants.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major BNB project announcements, regulatory updates affecting crypto exchanges, macroeconomic shifts influencing digital asset valuations, and unexpected volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market. Each of these can change trader sentiment and adjust the odds dynamically as the August 2026 deadline approaches.