TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?

predict

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?

Volume:

$361,057

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?

- Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$314,586

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?

N/A

N/A

—

$3,349

$46,471

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks Bitcoin price movement on June 29, 2026 using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close prices at noon ET as the reference point. The markets compare the June 28 noon close to the June 29 noon close to determine if Bitcoin moved up or down over that 24-hour period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group title references June 29, but the Predict platform market actually measures June 27 vs June 28 price movement, creating a one-day offset from the Polymarket market which correctly measures June 28 vs June 29. Both use identical resolution logic and source (Binance BTC/USDT 1m candles at noon ET), but measure different calendar periods.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent markets with different measurement windows. If you believe Bitcoin will rise on June 29 specifically, Polymarket is the correct market. If you have a thesis about June 28 movement, Predict is correct. Do not cross-hedge between them assuming they measure the same event.

Critical divergence points:

Predict: Measures June 27 12:00 ET close vs June 28 12:00 ET close. Resolves Up if June 27 close is lower than June 28 close. Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1m candles. Title says 'June 28' but description clearly references June 27 baseline.
Polymarket: Measures June 28 12:00 ET close vs June 29 12:00 ET close. Resolves Up if June 28 close is lower than June 29 close. Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1m candles. Title correctly says 'June 29' and description matches the title.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds and spot price expectations often diverge because they measure different things. Odds reflect traders' beliefs about a discrete outcome—up or down movement—while spot prices reflect current supply and demand for Bitcoin itself. Prediction markets isolate directional conviction and remove noise from intraday volatility, making them useful for isolating genuine conviction about near-term direction. Comparing the implied probabilities here to your own view of Bitcoin's technical setup, macro catalysts, and on-chain signals can reveal mispricing opportunities.

Polymarket and Predict may price this market differently due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Smaller or newer platforms often see wider spreads and faster price swings when large trades arrive, while established venues with deeper order books absorb volume more smoothly. Geographic and regulatory differences can also fragment trader participation. Monitoring both venues helps you spot arbitrage signals and understand which platform's odds reflect the most informed or liquid consensus.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data, geopolitical developments, and large on-chain Bitcoin transfers that signal institutional positioning. Technical levels and support or resistance zones can trigger algorithmic trading and cascade moves. Regulatory news—especially from the SEC or international bodies—often reshapes sentiment rapidly. Macro risk-off events, equity market selloffs, or sudden shifts in stablecoin demand can also swing Bitcoin's direction sharply. Monitoring these signals in real time helps traders anticipate odds shifts before they fully price in.