TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?

polymarket

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?

Volume:

$341,965

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?

- Polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 28, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28?

0%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$270,951

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

predict

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

N/A

N/A

—

$2,009

$71,014

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

This event group compares Bitcoin's price movement across three related but distinct dates on Binance BTC/USDT. The predict platform covers June 26–27 comparison, while polymarket covers June 27–28 comparison. All use the same resolution methodology: comparing 1-minute candle close prices at 12:00 ET noon on consecutive days.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The event group is titled for June 28, but the Predict platform market resolves on June 27 price comparison, creating a one-day temporal offset between platforms. Both use identical resolution logic and source, but cover different calendar dates.Hero tip: These markets are NOT fungible. Predict resolves Jun 26→27; Polymarket resolves Jun 27→28. Choose your platform based on the specific date you wish to trade. Cross-platform hedging will not work as intended due to the one-day shift.

Critical divergence points:

Predict: Compares Binance BTC/USDT close price at Jun 26 12:00 ET vs Jun 27 12:00 ET. Resolves Up if Jun 26 close is lower than Jun 27 close; Down if Jun 26 close is higher. 50-50 on exact equality. Source: Binance 1m candles.
Polymarket: Compares Binance BTC/USDT close price at Jun 27 12:00 ET vs Jun 28 12:00 ET. Resolves Up if Jun 27 close is lower than Jun 28 close; Down if Jun 27 close is higher. 50-50 on exact equality. Source: Binance 1m candles.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect collective trader conviction, often diverging from spot price momentum alone. While technical analysis and recent price action inform short-term moves, this market distills forward-looking sentiment into a single probability. Traders betting on directional moves embed macroeconomic signals, regulatory news, and on-chain metrics into their positions. The odds here typically lead spot volatility because they represent real capital at risk. Comparing implied probabilities to your own conviction on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory helps identify mispriced outcomes and edge.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader pools, liquidity depths, and fee structures, causing temporary price gaps. Polymarket may see heavier retail flow while Predict draws institutional volume, shifting odds in opposite directions. Latency in arbitrage execution, different user interfaces, and platform-specific incentives also create friction. These spreads typically narrow as informed traders exploit mispricings, but windows of divergence persist during volatile news cycles or low-liquidity periods, rewarding attentive cross-platform monitors.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, and regulatory statements on cryptocurrency. Macro risk events—geopolitical tensions, banking stress, or equity market shocks—often trigger Bitcoin repricing as traders reassess safe-haven demand. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale wallet activity can signal insider conviction. Technical breakouts above or below key resistance levels frequently spark momentum trades. News of institutional adoption, corporate treasury moves, or exchange-traded product flows also shift odds materially in the final days before settlement.